GDB last date 18 may 2017

[Rana HM Kamran Sabir(M.Com 4)]

PROBLEM:

Mr. Ali, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

Month	Demand (1000 SKUs)
1	20
2	18
3	21
4	24
5	25
6	27
7	22
8	23
9	30
10	20
11	29
12	22

 

You are required to suggest Mr. Ali a more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

• Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
• Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
• You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

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[Rana HM Kamran Sabir(M.Com 4)]

Go to lecture 9 and 10 for correct solution. Thanks

[+M.Tariq Malik]

Please Discuss here about this GDB.Thanks

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[Amaya khan]

help

[Rana HM Kamran Sabir(M.Com 4)]

amaya khan plz read lecture 9 and 10 with full concentration. If u have any problem m here for ur help thanks

[sohail]

kindly check n correct plz

[Amaya khan]

apka wrong hai 1000 skus b to hai

[Zubaira Ahmad]

Plzz check this solution and correct ur self. thanks 

[Rana HM Kamran Sabir(M.Com 4)]

[az1987]

error= actual forcasts ye amount kese find krni he

[Zubaira Ahmad]

az1987 jo apl pass demand ha skus ki us mei sy 3 or 4 moths ki moring average to minas krna ha,

like= 25,000 is actual - 19666.66 forcast = 5333.34 error 

[dunya naseer]

[Usman Mirza]

Rana HM Kamran Mistake No.1 = 4 MPA mein 22000 nhi 2250 OK, Mistake No 2 = Name Ali not Ahsan