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# GDB last date 18 may 2017

PROBLEM:

Mr. Ali, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

 Month Demand (1000 SKUs) 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 24 5 25 6 27 7 22 8 23 9 30 10 20 11 29 12 22

You are required to suggest Mr. Ali a more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

• Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
• Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
• You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

• Your discussion must be based on calculations.
• The GDB will open and close at above specified date and time. Please note that no grace day or extra time will be given for posting comments on GDB.
• Your answer should be relevant to the topic i.e. no definitions & theoretical explanations are required.
• Do not copy or exchange your answer with other students. Two identical/ copied comments will be marked Zero (0) and may damage your grade in the course.
• Books, websites and other reading material may be consulted before posting your comments; but copying or reproducing the text from books, websites and other reading materials is strictly prohibited. Such comments will be marked as Zero (0) even if you provide references.
• Obnoxious or ignoble answer should be strictly avoided.
• You cannot participate in the discussion after the due date via email.
• Questions/ queries related to the content of the GDB posted by the students on MDB or via e-mail, will not be replied till the GDB is open.

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