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PROBLEM:

Mr. Ali, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

Month

Demand (1000 SKUs)

1

20

2

18

3

21

4

24

5

25

6

27

7

22

8

23

9

30

10

20

11

29

12

22

 

You are required to suggest Mr. Ali a more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

  1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
  2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

  • Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
  • Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
  • You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

  • Your discussion must be based on calculations.
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  • Obnoxious or ignoble answer should be strictly avoided.
  • You cannot participate in the discussion after the due date via email.
  • Questions/ queries related to the content of the GDB posted by the students on MDB or via e-mail, will not be replied till the GDB is open.

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