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ECO601 Business Econometrics Assignment No 01 Fall 2019 Solution & Discussion Due Date: 21-11-2019

ECO601 Business Econometrics Assignment No 01 Fall 2019 Solution & Discussion Due Date: 21-11-2019

ECO601 BUSINESS ECONOMETRICS Assignment 1 Solution/Discussion Fall 2019


SEMESTER FALL 2019

BUSINESS ECONOMETRICS (ECO601)  

ASSIGNMENT

DUE DATE: 21ST NOVEMBER, 2019

MARKS: 10

 

The Case:

Expansionary monetary policy didn’t play its role effectively in the increase in exports as it was expected to be done similar in 2013-2014.  The present government of Pakistan is trying its best to increase the exports and reduce the imports. For this purpose, government uses the tight monetary policy. Government increases the interest rate and also tries to bring the exchange rate at adjustable position. Remittances also play vital role in decreasing current account deficit. Remittances and Exports play role to increase the economic growth of the country. In this assignment, Growth rate is taken as a function of exports, remittances, and Capital .In order to find out the effect of these variables on Growth rate, following model has been proposed for estimation:

Growth rate = β0 + β1 (Exports) + β2 (Remittances) + β3 (Capital) +    ………….  (1)

Model (1) can also be written as:

   ……………  (2) 

In model (2):

  : Real GDP Growth Rate (Percent)

  : Exports of Principal Commodities (Million Dollars)

  : Workers’ Remittances (Million Dollars) 

 

: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Million Rupees)

 

   : Intercept term

 

    : Error term

 

: Slope Coefficients.

 

Data on these variables is taken from 1995 to 2015. Data has been taken from State bank of Pakistan website”.

 

Years

Economic Growth (GDP)

Exports (E)

Workers’

Remittances (R)

Gross Fixed

Capital

Formation (K)

1995

4.1

8,137.2

1,866.10

317,845

1996

6.6

8,707.1

1,461.17

368,424

1997

1.7

8,320.3

1,409.47

396,859

1998

3.5

8,627.7

1,489.55

402,845

1999

4.2

7,779.3

1,060.19

409,357

2000

3.9

8,568.6

983.73

607,410

2001

2.0

9,201.6

1,086.57

659,325

2002

3.1

9,134.6

2,389.05

680,373

2003

4.7

11,160.2

4,236.85

736,433

2004

7.5

12,313.3

3,871.58

844,836

2005

9.0

14,391.1

4,168.79

1,134,942

2006

5.8

16,451.2

4,600.12

1,711,522

2007

5.54

16,976.2

5,493.65

1,960,232

2008

4.99

19,052.3

6,451.24

2,066,941

2009

0.36

17,688.0

7,811.43

2,263,636

2010

2.58

19,290.0

8,905.90

2,504,231

2011

3.62

24,810.4

11,200.97

2,288,325

2012

3.84

23,624.3

13,186.62

2,701,458

2013

3.65

24,460.5

13,921.66

2,990,126

2014

4.03

25,109.6

15,837.71

3,354,999

2015

4.24

23,667.3

18,720.00

3,701,627

 

Requirements:  

Using above information, estimate the multiple regression model by using Microsoft Excel Data Analysis Tool and find out as well as interpret coefficients and R square value:

  1. Coefficients (β0, β1, β2, β3)
  2. R square
  3. Adjusted R square
  4. Calculate F-value                        

Marks: (4 + 2 + 2 +2)

Note:           You   are     required      to       give           interpretation       of       required regression/estimation results in tabular form given below:

Dependent Variable:  Growth Rate (

R square value

 

R square interpretation

 

Adjusted R square value

 

F-value

 

 

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