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# MGMT617 - Production Planning and Inventory Control assignment No. 17-12-20 last date

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Production Planning and Inventory Control (MGMT617)Production Planning and Inventory Control (MGMT617)
Semester: Fall 2020 Assignment No. 1Due Date: December 17, 2020 Total Marks: 10
Objective:
To reinforce the concept of Demand Management and Forecasting.
Scenario:Sales for the past 12 months at XYZ Company are given here.
Months Sales (\$ millions) Months Sales (\$ millions)January 20 July 53February 24 August 62March 27 September 54April 31 October 36May 37 November 32June 47 December 29
1. Use a 3-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Use weights of (3/6), (2/6), and (1/6), giving more weight to more recent data.(3 marks)
2. Use exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was \$22 million. Start error measurement in April.
(4 marks)
3. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation (MAD) as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
(3 marks)

Instructions:• You are required to show the necessary calculations in solution.
• No theoretical definitions and explanations are required.• Watch video lectures and consult book/notes to complete the assignment.
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response sir tariq

HOPE SO SIR TILL 10PM

PLEASE DO THE NEEDFULL TO SETTLE TIMELY

 Sales for the past 12 months at XYZ Company are given here. ALPHA=0.6 MAD Month SALES(At) 3 Month Weight moving avg ESMOOTHING(Ft) error |error| jan 20 22 feb 24 21 mar 27 23 apr 31 25 25 6 6 may 37 29 29 9 9 jun 47 33 34 14 14 jul 53 41 42 12 12 aug 62 48 48 14 14 sep 54 57 57 -3 3 oct 36 57 55 -21 21 nov 32 46 44 -14 14 dec 29 37 37 -8 8 JAN 31 32 11 MAD=11 Note that for Calculating Exponential smooth value first given forcaseting 22 Exponential Smoothing FORMULA' Weightage More recent more weitght basis 0.5 0.3 0.2 Ft+1=Ft+α(At-Ft) Ft+1=αFt+(1-α)Ft (1-alpha)=1-0.6=0.4

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