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Production Planning and Inventory Control (MGMT617)Production Planning and Inventory Control (MGMT617)
Semester: Fall 2020 Assignment No. 1Due Date: December 17, 2020 Total Marks: 10
To reinforce the concept of Demand Management and Forecasting.
Scenario:Sales for the past 12 months at XYZ Company are given here.
Months Sales ($ millions) Months Sales ($ millions)January 20 July 53February 24 August 62March 27 September 54April 31 October 36May 37 November 32June 47 December 29
1. Use a 3-month weighted moving average to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Use weights of (3/6), (2/6), and (1/6), giving more weight to more recent data.(3 marks)
2. Use exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the sales for the months April through December. Assume that the initial forecast for January was $22 million. Start error measurement in April.
(4 marks)
3. Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation (MAD) as the performance criterion, with error measurement beginning in April. Which method would you recommend?
(3 marks)

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response sir tariq



Sales for the past 12 months at XYZ Company are given here.      
ALPHA=0.6   MAD 
Month  SALES(At) 3 Month Weight moving avg ESMOOTHING(Ft) error |error|
jan 20   22    
feb 24   21    
mar 27   23    
apr 31 25 25 6 6
may 37 29 29 9 9
jun 47 33 34 14 14
jul 53 41 42 12 12
aug 62 48 48 14 14
sep 54 57 57 -3 3
oct 36 57 55 -21 21
nov 32 46 44 -14 14
dec 29 37 37 -8 8
JAN   31 32   11
Note that for Calculating Exponential smooth value first given forcaseting 22    
Exponential Smoothing FORMULA' Weightage More recent more weitght basis 0.5 0.3 0.2


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