Total Marks 10
Starting Date Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Closing Date Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Question Title GDB 1
The following demand set is to be used to test two basic Exponential Smoothing models of forecasting. The first model uses α = 0.1 and the second one uses α = 0.5.
For both values of α, forecast the demand for Month 13. Also, calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and conclude which model (i.e. value of α) is more appropriate.
Show all forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
Compare MAD for both models and clearly mention which value of α gives better forecasts.
You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy/paste the table in GDB comments.
Your discussion must be based on calculations.
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Mean Absolute Deviation of model (a=0.1) is less so this model is more appropriate.