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# MGMT617 - Production Planning and Inventory Control GDB No. 1 Solution Fall 2017 Due Date: November 14, 2017

Total Marks 10
Starting Date Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Closing Date Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Status Open
Question Title GDB 1
Question Description
The following demand set is to be used to test two basic Exponential Smoothing models of forecasting. The first model uses α = 0.1 and the second one uses α = 0.5.

For both values of α, forecast the demand for Month 13. Also, calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and conclude which model (i.e. value of α) is more appropriate.

Month

Demand

1

51

2

47

3

51

4

55

5

52

6

46

7

49

8

56

9

51

10

48

11

55

12

49

13

?

NOTE:

Show all forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
Compare MAD for both models and clearly mention which value of α gives better forecasts.
You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy/paste the table in GDB comments.
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

Your discussion must be based on calculations.
The GDB will open and close at above specified date and time. Please note that no grace day or extra time will be given for posting comments on GDB.
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Obnoxious or ignoble answer should be strictly avoided.
You cannot participate in the discussion after the due date via email.
Questions / queries related to the content of the GDB, which may be posted by the students on MDB or via e-mail, will not be replied till the GDB is open.

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any ideas???

Mean Absolute Deviation of model (a=0.1) is less so this model is more appropriate.

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