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# MGMT617 - Production Planning and Inventory Control GDB No. 1 Solution Fall 2017 Due Date: November 14, 2017

Total Marks 10
Starting Date Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Closing Date Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Status Open
Question Title GDB 1
Question Description
The following demand set is to be used to test two basic Exponential Smoothing models of forecasting. The first model uses α = 0.1 and the second one uses α = 0.5.

For both values of α, forecast the demand for Month 13. Also, calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and conclude which model (i.e. value of α) is more appropriate.

Month

Demand

1

51

2

47

3

51

4

55

5

52

6

46

7

49

8

56

9

51

10

48

11

55

12

49

13

?

NOTE:

Show all forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
Compare MAD for both models and clearly mention which value of α gives better forecasts.
You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy/paste the table in GDB comments.
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

Your discussion must be based on calculations.
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Questions / queries related to the content of the GDB, which may be posted by the students on MDB or via e-mail, will not be replied till the GDB is open.

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any ideas???

Mean Absolute Deviation of model (a=0.1) is less so this model is more appropriate.

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