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PROBLEM:

Mr. Ali, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

Month

Demand (1000 SKUs)

1

20

2

18

3

21

4

24

5

25

6

27

7

22

8

23

9

30

10

20

11

29

12

22

 

You are required to suggest Mr. Ali a more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

  1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
  2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 and its Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

  • Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
  • Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
  • You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

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Replies to This Discussion

Go to lecture 9 and 10 for correct solution. Thanks

Please Discuss here about this GDB.Thanks

Our main purpose here discussion not just Solution

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help

amaya khan plz read lecture 9 and 10 with full concentration. If u have any problem m here for ur help thanks

kindly check n correct plz

Attachments:

apka wrong hai 1000 skus b to hai

Plzz check this solution and correct ur self. thanks 

Attachments:

Attachments:

error= actual forcasts ye amount kese find krni he

az1987 jo apl pass demand ha skus ki us mei sy 3 or 4 moths ki moring average to minas krna ha,

like= 25,000 is actual - 19666.66 forcast = 5333.34 error 

Rana HM Kamran Mistake No.1 = 4 MPA mein 22000 nhi 2250 OK, Mistake No 2 = Name Ali not Ahsan 

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