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Learning Objectives: students will be able to learn decision making techniques under un-certain conditions.

Scenario:

Mr. Ahmad is newly appointed Manager of Alpha Trading Pvt. Ltd. Company. In order to meet customer demand he usually orders one week in advance from suppliers. This summer season due to some un-controllable reasons, sales of Juices are fluctuating so much that he cannot reliably estimate the probability of low (125 cartons), medium (500 cartons) or high demand (800 cartons). A carton of juice cost 500 rupees and sells for 750 rupees.

Under this uncertain situation he is confused as he has to meet customers demand and also increase revenue to prove that he is capable of effective decision making under such uncertain situations. He decides to use different approaches to make decision under un-certain conditions. He is of optimist nature but wants to present other cautious and pessimist approaches results to management as well. These approaches are Maximin, Maximax and Laplace.

Now put yourself in the shoes of Mr. Ahmad and prepare a report showing outcomes of different approaches to present in front of higher management.

Data: Minimum, medium and maximum demand possibilities and payoff table is given below.

Alternatives

Demand scenarios

 

Low Demand

125 (Cartons)

Medium Demand

500 (Cartons)

High Demand

800 (Cartons)

Orders

Payoff=sale – purchase

 Order 125 (Cartons)

31250

31250

31250*

Order 500 (Cartons)

-156250

125000

125000

Order 800 (Cartons)

-306250

-25000

200000

*Cannot sell in excess of order

Questions:-

  1. Decide under each approach how much cartons he should order and what will be respective payoff?
  2. Which approach you (Mr. Ahmad) will prefer? And why?

 

 

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Kindly idea solution

instructor has asked the different approaches applied on this case study and secondly asked for your opinion as well.

GDB Solving method

 

 

Q-1 Idea attached

Q-1 Idea attached

Attachments:

Idea solution complete ha..? it is covering two questions ..????? anyone know let me know

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