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# GDB NO.1 May 2018

Learning Objectives: students will be able to learn decision making techniques under un-certain conditions.

Scenario:

Mr. Ahmad is newly appointed Manager of Alpha Trading Pvt. Ltd. Company. In order to meet customer demand he usually orders one week in advance from suppliers. This summer season due to some un-controllable reasons, sales of Juices are fluctuating so much that he cannot reliably estimate the probability of low (125 cartons), medium (500 cartons) or high demand (800 cartons). A carton of juice cost 500 rupees and sells for 750 rupees.

Under this uncertain situation he is confused as he has to meet customers demand and also increase revenue to prove that he is capable of effective decision making under such uncertain situations. He decides to use different approaches to make decision under un-certain conditions. He is of optimist nature but wants to present other cautious and pessimist approaches results to management as well. These approaches are Maximin, Maximax and Laplace.

Now put yourself in the shoes of Mr. Ahmad and prepare a report showing outcomes of different approaches to present in front of higher management.

Data: Minimum, medium and maximum demand possibilities and payoff table is given below.

 Alternatives Demand scenarios Low Demand 125 (Cartons) Medium Demand 500 (Cartons) High Demand 800 (Cartons) Orders Payoff=sale – purchase Order 125 (Cartons) 31250 31250 31250* Order 500 (Cartons) -156250 125000 125000 Order 800 (Cartons) -306250 -25000 200000

*Cannot sell in excess of order

Questions:-

1. Decide under each approach how much cartons he should order and what will be respective payoff?
2. Which approach you (Mr. Ahmad) will prefer? And why?

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

• Your answer should be relevant to the topic i.e. no definitions are required.
• The GDB will open and close at above specified date and time. Please note that no grace day or extra time will be given for posting comments on GDB.
• Do not copy or exchange your answer with other students. Two identical/ copied comments will be marked Zero (0) and may damage your grade in the course.
• Books, websites and other reading material may be consulted before posting your comments; but copying or reproducing the text from books, websites and other reading materials is strictly prohibited. Such comments will be marked as Zero (0) even if you provide references.
• Obnoxious or ignoble answer should be strictly avoided.
• You cannot participate in the discussion after the due date via email.

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### Replies to This Discussion

Please Discuss here about this GDB.Thanks

Our main purpose here discussion not just Solution

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Kindly idea solution

instructor has asked the different approaches applied on this case study and secondly asked for your opinion as well.

GDB Solving method

Q-1 Idea attached

Q-1 Idea attached

Attachments:

Idea solution complete ha..? it is covering two questions ..????? anyone know let me know

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