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# MGT613 GDB#1 Solution & Discuss Last Date:08-11-2010

Question: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-05 using a=0.10?

 Week Demand 0.1 1 980 2 825 3 760 4 650 5

Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students who give answers without calculation will be given low marks/no marks.

Discuss and share ideas please !!!!

Last date is 8 November

Solution

 Weeks Demands 0.1 1 980 980 2 825 980 3 760 964.5 4 650 944.05 5 914.645

Formula for finding Forecast value for the coming time period is,
Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1)

For Week 1,
F1 = 980+0.1(980-980)
= 980
For Week 2,
F2 = 980+0.1(980-980)
= 980
For Week 3,
F3 = 980+0.1(825-980)
= 964.5
For Week 4,
F4 = 964.5+0.1(760-964.5)
= 944.05
For Week 5,
F5 = 944.5+0.1(650-944.5)
= 914.645

Views: 187

### Replies to This Discussion

MGT613 GDB Solution
See the attached file pls
Attachments:
Thank u
thanks sir jee...
Dear Tariq bhai, i m not satisfied with the solution. I think there is some thing wrong in calculation.
MGT613 GDB Solution in Excel File
See the attached file psl
Attachments:
this is correct it is calculate by using following formula which is explain in lecture 10. Page no.40 of hand outs.

Formula;

Ft = Ft-1+α (At-1-Ft-1)

Ft = Forecast value for the coming time period

Ft-1 = Forecast value in one past time period

At-1 = Actual occurrence in 1 past time period

α = Alpha smoothing constant.

Week

Demand

0.1

1

980

-

2

82

980+0.1(980-980)

= 980

3

760

980+0.1(825-980)

= 964.5

4

650

964.5+0.1(760-964.5)

= 944.05

5

944.05+0.1(650-944.05)

=914.65
thank u so so much sadia.
ASLAM O ALIKUM

sadia good work my ans same you and correct ans goooooooooooog thanx

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