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# MGT613 Production/Operation Management, Assignment # 1 Opening Date November 26, 2015 and due date will be December 02, 2015.

Assignment # 01

production/operations management (mgt613)

Marks: 10

Topic:  Forecasting

Objective: The objective of this assignment is to numerically perform the concept of different types of forecasting.

Scenario:

There are certain businesses whose performances/sales get affected by the seasonal conditions of their regions. Fast moving consumer goods are one of those businesses, whose product demand is dependent and very much affected by the weather conditions. Huge demand differences exist in summer and winters. Eggs and poultry business is one of those, in winters its demand is high and is low in summer.

Fine Eggs and Poultry Ltd. (private) is a firm located at Rawalpindi. It holds 60% of Rawalpindi market share in this business. Its customers include mega-marts, general stores, bakeries and burger shops. As the winter is approaching, so its management has to prepare forecasting schedule and table to forecast demand of eggs. Based upon the previous historical records, the management extracted following table:

 Week (s) Demand units (000) 1 700 2 800 3 850 4 870 5 900 6 920 7 960 8 980

From the above given information you are required to calculate:

•           3-week moving average forecast demand in week 4, 6 and 8.

•           Weighted moving average forecast demand in week 5 with the same and equal weights of all previous weeks.

•           Exponential smoothing forecast demand for all weeks using 0.9 as smoothing constant. However the management predicted 650,000 demand in first week

Note:

1. The answer should be in mathematical form only and doesn’t need any theory. But it should also include formulas.

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### Replies to This Discussion

lets start

Our main purpose here discussion not just Solution

We are here with you hands in hands to facilitate your learning and do not appreciate the idea of copying or replicating solutions.

slide of lec no 9 & 10 is related to this assignment plz follow the example of the slide and try to solve it.

samra sis kindly share your formula for all question ...

r u apply the formula of handout or not?

and question 3rd kindly explain i don't understand it

ap ki values sab kaisi nikli han yahi puch rahi ap sa ...samra tariq

samra the first week demand is 700

=     F4= 700+800+865/3  =783.33

F6= 700+800+850+870+900/5  =  824

F8= 700+800+850+870+900+920+960/7 = 857

F5= 700+800+850+870/4 = 805

Samra plz check ur F8

samra how we know the value of w?

We are not given the weights, but in 2nd part it is mentioned: "with the same and equal weights of all previous weeks"
Weights must add to 1, and for 4 weeks it would be 1/4=0.25 for each

Regards

A...z sis my 1st and 2nd answer are same with u but i can't understand the samra sis answer question 1st the option 1st are same with both of same but the option 2nd or 3rd are different.

i think it is correct solution samra sis

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