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# MGT613 Production/Operation Management, Assignment # 1 Opening Date November 26, 2015 and due date will be December 02, 2015.

Assignment # 01

production/operations management (mgt613)

Marks: 10

Topic:  Forecasting

Objective: The objective of this assignment is to numerically perform the concept of different types of forecasting.

Scenario:

There are certain businesses whose performances/sales get affected by the seasonal conditions of their regions. Fast moving consumer goods are one of those businesses, whose product demand is dependent and very much affected by the weather conditions. Huge demand differences exist in summer and winters. Eggs and poultry business is one of those, in winters its demand is high and is low in summer.

Fine Eggs and Poultry Ltd. (private) is a firm located at Rawalpindi. It holds 60% of Rawalpindi market share in this business. Its customers include mega-marts, general stores, bakeries and burger shops. As the winter is approaching, so its management has to prepare forecasting schedule and table to forecast demand of eggs. Based upon the previous historical records, the management extracted following table:

 Week (s) Demand units (000) 1 700 2 800 3 850 4 870 5 900 6 920 7 960 8 980

From the above given information you are required to calculate:

•           3-week moving average forecast demand in week 4, 6 and 8.

•           Weighted moving average forecast demand in week 5 with the same and equal weights of all previous weeks.

•           Exponential smoothing forecast demand for all weeks using 0.9 as smoothing constant. However the management predicted 650,000 demand in first week

Note:

1. The answer should be in mathematical form only and doesn’t need any theory. But it should also include formulas.

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Important:

For acquiring the relevant knowledge, do not rely only on handouts but watch the course video lectures and read additional material available online or in any other mode.

Dear students!

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### Replies to This Discussion

u welcome samra tariq

main na yahi question define to kabi kya han handout sa bi lin bi da k ab sab jasa kariyan un ki marzi muja jasa samanj ayi main na bata di ab deakhta han kon sahi ha kon ghalat ya to assign k result pa hi pata chala ga

as per my point its correct now ab vu ki solution file kaisi ati ha main na submit kar di ha ab again ni ki jati jaisi bi ho gyai ha

F1= 650+0.9(650-650) = 650
F2= 650+0.9(800-650) = 785
F3= 785+0.9(850-785) = 843.5
F4= 843.5+0.9(870-843.5) = 867.35
F5= 867.35+0.9(900-867.35) = 896.735
F6= 896.735+0.9(920-896.735) = 917.67
F7= 917.67+0.9(960-917.67) = 955.77
F8= 955.77 +0.9(980-955.77) = 977.57

hi i dont undestand how to conclude W in Q2 plz help me.

haahhahahhahhahah :P :D abhe smjh ni ae wah

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