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Dear Students,

This is to inform that Graded Discussion Board (GDB) No. 1 would be opened on 16th of November, 2016; and last date for posting your discussion comments/ solution will be 22nd of November, 2016.

 

Topic/Area 

 “Forecasting”

PROBLEM:

Mr. Ahsan, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

Month

Demand (1000 SKUs)

1

20

2

18

3

21

4

25

5

24

6

27

7

22

8

30

9

23

10

20

11

29

12

22

 

 

You are required to suggest Mr. Ahsan more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

  1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 & Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
  2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 & Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

  • Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
  • Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
  • You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

 

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

  • Your discussion must be based on calculations.
  • The GDB will open and close at above specified date and time. Please note that no grace day or extra time will be given for posting comments on GDB.
  • Use the font style “Times New Roman” and font size “12”.
  • Your answer should be relevant to the topic i.e. no definitions & theoretical explanations are required.
  • Do not copy or exchange your answer with other students. Two identical/ copied comments will be marked Zero (0) and may damage your grade in the course.
  • Books, websites and other reading material may be consulted before posting your comments; but copying or reproducing the text from books, websites and other reading materials is strictly prohibited. Such comments will be marked as Zero (0) even if you provide references.


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Views: 2094

Replies to This Discussion

Bhaiya ap ny suugestion nai di Mr. Ahsan ko k konsa MAD performa behtar hai mr. ahsan k lie? As written in the instruction of Gdb; "Also compare the MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method"... So, plz is par b discuss kijeye...

Muhammad Zubair thanks for sharing 

apne jo 3rd period ki value ko prefer kiya hai kya ye lower value of error ki base pe select krna hai? 

kisi ko idea hai k selection of period kis base pe ki hai. kya ye lowest value of MAD Ki base pr hogi?

Zubair bro kindly kuch bta den jo apne procedure use kiya ha or answer findout kiya ha wo kesy kiya ha please kuch guide kr den

if u know about it

please help us

According to our finding, 3 months moving avg contains less error than 4 months moving avg so we recommend 3 months moving avg

you right  Muhammad Zubair 3 month is batter then 4

kindly calculation ka procedure bta den koi kuch b smajh nai a rha k formula kesy put krna or kesy find krna ha k kon sa period best ha




please help me guys

kya koi hai?

ZUBAIR BHAI PERIOD KI SELECTION APNE KIS BASE PR KI HAI

See lecture no. 9 & 10 usme pora procedure dia hai

3 months ki moving average 19666.66667 hai but 4th wali ki 21333.33333 kese i? please btaa dein

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