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# MGT613 - Production / Operations Management GDB #01

Dear Students,

This is to inform that Graded Discussion Board (GDB) No. 1 would be opened on 16th of November, 2016; and last date for posting your discussion comments/ solution will be 22nd of November, 2016.

Topic/Area

“Forecasting”

PROBLEM:

Mr. Ahsan, the production manager of XYZ Company, wants to use a Moving-Average method to forecast the future demand; but not sure whether a 3-period moving-average would yield better forecasts or a 4-period moving-average!

The demand data of last 12 months have been given in following table:

 Month Demand (1000 SKUs) 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22

You are required to suggest Mr. Ahsan more suitable forecasting method by calculating and analyzing:

1. 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 & Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
2. 4-period moving average forecasts for months 5 – 12 & Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

NOTE:

• Show the forecasts along with necessary calculations in tabular form.
• Compare MAD for both methods and clearly mention your suggested method.
• You may solve the problem in MS Excel and copy-paste the table in GDB comments.

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS:

• Your discussion must be based on calculations.
• The GDB will open and close at above specified date and time. Please note that no grace day or extra time will be given for posting comments on GDB.
• Use the font style “Times New Roman” and font size “12”.
• Your answer should be relevant to the topic i.e. no definitions & theoretical explanations are required.
• Do not copy or exchange your answer with other students. Two identical/ copied comments will be marked Zero (0) and may damage your grade in the course.
• Books, websites and other reading material may be consulted before posting your comments; but copying or reproducing the text from books, websites and other reading materials is strictly prohibited. Such comments will be marked as Zero (0) even if you provide references.

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### Replies to This Discussion

4 25000 F4 = 19666.6667
5 24000 F5 = 21333.3333 (18000+21000+25000/3)

Okay, got it. Thanku or yeh 3-period moving average forecasts for months 4 – 12 & Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)kis base pe select kia hai? yeh b btaa do

yehi mai b ni janti

Jese zubair ne bola ke unhoon ne errors ki base pe kia hai

maine internet pe search kiya according to which lowest value of MAD will be selected among the both periods

thanks :)

Toh iss hisaab se 3 period moving average hi ayegi

Dear Students Don’t wait for solution post your problems here and discuss ... after discussion a perfect solution will come in a result. So, Start it now, replies here give your comments according to your knowledge and understandings....

clearly mention the suggested method please

See lecture no. 9 and 10

Attachments:

tariq sir ap hi kuch help kr dein time boht km hai please

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