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MGT613 Production / Operations Management GDB Spring 2020 Solution & Discussion


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Mgt613
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Solution
Being a student of Production/Operations Manager, I will you help Mr. Khalid to devise the
proper requirements of a good forecast which is accurate enough to save the company from
financial distress are as follow.
1. Identify a set of possible future conditions called state of nature which includes the low, high,
medium demand pattern and a working on the competitor’s introduction of new product.
2. Develop a list of alternatives, one of which may be to do nothing.
3. Determine or estimate the payoff associated with each alternative for every possible future
condition
4. If possible estimate the likely hood of each possible future condition
5. Evaluate alternatives according to some decision criterion e.g. maximize expected profit and
select the best alternatives to choose from.
Note: if you found any mistake then correct ur self I am not responsible in case of zero
ma

MGT613 GDB NO.1 2020

Being a student of Production/Operations Manager, I will you help Mr. Khalid to devise the proper requirements of a good forecast which is accurate enough to save the company from financial distress are as follow. 1. Identify a set of possible future conditions called state of nature which includes the low, high, medium demand pattern and a working on the competitor’s introduction of new product. 2. Develop a list of alternatives, one of which may be to do nothing.

Determine or estimate the payoff associated with each alternative for every possible future condition 4. If possible estimate the likely hood of each possible future condition 5. Evaluate alternatives according to some decision criterion e.g. maximize expected profit and select the best alternatives to choose from.

Requirements of a Good Forecast

• Timely. The forecast should be timely. Indicating that forecasting horizon should provide enough time to implement possible changes. Capacity cannot be expanded instantly it requires some time to plan, coordinate and increase the required resources.

• Reliable. Forecasts should be reliable meaning that it should work consistently. A forecast that is partially correct will succeed at sometime and sometime fail making the end users question the purpose and intent of forecasting.

• Accuracy. Forecasts should be accurate. In fact it should carry the degree of accuracy, so the users are aware of the limitations of the forecast. This will also help the end users to plan for possible errors and provide a basis for comparing the forecast with other alternative forecasts.

• Meaningful Forecast should be expressed in meaningful units. Financial Planners will use Rupees to show how much capital would be required; Mechanical Project Schedulers would require Forecasts to carry the type of machines and crafts of technicians required.

• Written/Documented. The forecasts should be presented in writing. A documented forecast always provides a chance to measure the variance between estimate and actual result at a later stage.

•Simple to understand and use meaning that Forecasts should not be dependant upon usage of sophisticated computer techniques or task specific highly qualified technical personnel. A failure or limitation on the part of this can lead to an incorrect decision and less acceptance amongst end users

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