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Replies to This Discussion

please tell me how to find out the center averafe values of year 2007 of 3rd and 4th quarter pllllzzzz
i think by adding average of sale increase in last four quarters, am i right?
Thnk u sir 4 sharing this solution. but i hv some problem. jo mainy solve kia hai last question wo aapky question se almost same hai central averages tak.. but agy forcasting same nahi hai..:( aapny sales ko 188.25 se onward kyun increase kia hai? jabkh wo to start se hi increase ho rahi hain na in CMA. kindly can u explain how u claculate these forcasting??? plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

If you look at your solved examples in handouts, you might some hint of what am trying to do over here.

we have center averages only up to 1st and 2nd quarter of 2007. What we do is, we find out the trend of centered averages from 2nd quarter of 2006 up to 2nd quarter of 2007. and use this value for re-arranging the trends in 2007 including 1st and 2nd quarter.

Regarding 3rd quarter, you need to find out the average frequency of intervals of all the center averages and add that average to value of 2nd quarter to get value for 3rd. Similarly add average frequency to newly obtained value of 3rd quarter and you will have your answer for 4th.

Once you have a revised seasonal trend for 2007, 2008 is just simple. You will be adding averages of each quarter to them to get your final answers.
for example in handouts, there was decline in sale, but here there is an increase, so this sale should be added not subtracted?????
yh thnx 4 replying. but s following ur instruction. the above given solution is not rite na? coz yahan pe Sale increase just 2006 k 2nd Quarter se onward 2007 k 2nd quarter tak calculate ki hai.. why? in my point ov view we should calculate difference from 2nd Quarter of 2005 to 2nd Quarter of 2007. which is 176 to 204.625. so in k difference ko total intervals pe divide kar k we can get average frequency. den 204.625 which is value of 2nd Quarter of 2007 se onward 2008 k 4th quarter tak hum is average frequency koa dd karty jayngy so can we get required Forecast sale. m i rite sir?? ye method mainy handouts main 33 lec main parha hai.

Read more: Final Version of MTH 302 Assignment # 3 Solution By Black Mist - Virtual University of Pakistan http://vustudents.ning.com/group/mth302businessmathematicsstatistic...
i am not sure how forecast for autumn and winter of 2008 will be calculated but i know your forecast for whole coming is not correct because at one side your calcualtion for previous for quarters showing an increase and on the other hand your forecast showing a decrease in actual values while there should be increased actual values. Think of it......
no, wo just handouts main example hai. here in given question our sales are increasing.
so, we'll addup the sale in trend.
pls share the exact answer of question # 5 if u have solved?
pls share the exact answer of question # 5
up to the first quarter of 2008, that is Spring and 2'nd quarter, that is summer 2008, question is same as in handouts. Then, to find out forecast for Autumn and Winter of 2008, we have to find out C.moving average of Autumn and Winter of 2007. These could be calculated by diving annual sale increase, which is alread calculated, by 4 and then adding result to last C. moving average. Suppose, if we get result '2'by dividing annual sale by 4 and last C. moving average is 25, then next average is 25+2=27 and next is 29, then calcualte the forecast as u did for spring and summer of 2008. Please feedback...


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